Baseball

Ran Across this the other day in Andy Martino's chat wrap:

Comment From JL:
Do you have a sense for how much the Phillies' front office relies on sabermetrics and cutting edge statistical analysis in evaluating players? A lot? A little?

Andy Martino: None. Ruben Amaro and his men are savvy in many ways, but they are not interesting in statistical analysis, sabermetrics, etc. The Phils are a very traditionally-minded organization.

It absolutely amazes me that an organization can just flat out deny any advanced stats.

I do some work with DraftExpress, and we watch a LOT of basketball. Flying overseas to take in European practices, going to tournaments across the country, camps. We sit behind our TV's watching hours of game tapes, and we talk to coaches and advanced scouts to get their feelings on a prospect. Stats cannot be the only tool you use to measure a players effectiveness.

But dismissing them altogether?

In my opinion, baseball stats are further advanced than basketball stats, and do a much better job of isolating the player and whether he was the cause of the stats displayed on the boxscore, something that I still feel we have a way to go before achieving in basketball. In my opinion, advanced stats in baseball carry even more wait than in basketball.

Besides watching baseball, Ruben Amaro has to look at stats at some level to assess a player, right? I mean, he didn't sign Raul Ibanez without bringing his batting average into the equation, right?

So if you're going to use stats at some level, doesn't it make sense to get the BEST stats? If so, you would have a very hard time convincing me that batting average, wins, and the like are the best ways to measure the productivity of a player.

It's hard for me to really complain about Ruben, because outside of Jamie Moyer, he's been a very effective General Manager during his short duration. That being said, I'd be lying if I said that the "traditionally-minded" attitude doesn't disappoint me to some degree.

Pedro Feliz was the only Phillies regular rotation player with an undetermined contract situation, and it looks as if they are at least willing to look at possible alternatives. They have declined Feliz's 5.5 million option for $2010, making Feliz a free agent. This does not prevent them from signing the third baseman in the free agent market if they chose to go that route.

Despite his proficiency with the glove, Feliz was equally bad at the plate. After a (relatively) hot start, Feliz ended the year as one of the least productive 3rd basemen offensively, having a .308 OBP and a measley .386 slugging percentage. There are certainly offensive upgrades available to be had, and it makes sense the Phillies would explore other options, as it's no guarantee Feliz will command $5.5 million in this market.

Todd Zolecki is reporting that relievers Brad Lidge (right elbow) and Scott Eyre (left elbow), along with outfielder Raul Ibanez (sports hernia), are all scheduled to have surgery next week.

Along with the loose bodies in the elbow Lidge will also have his right flexor evaluated, which if it requires surgery could put his being ready for spring training in jeopardy.

Eyre is a potential free agent, and his surgery could affect the Phillies interest in bringing him back.

Brett Myers has announced that he was informed by Ruben Amaro that they would not look to re-sign him this offseason.

Said Myers:

It's been great playing here. I've had ups and downs here. It's always tough when you have to leave your family behind, and I consider the Phillies family.

Myers finished the season with a 4-3 record and a 4.84 ERA in 18 games, 10 of which were starts. He said he would have been willing to either start or come out of the pen for the Phillies if they had interest in re-signing him.

I do think the Phillies/Yankees series is between the best two teams in baseball. I think the Phillies are the only one that can play the Yankees at their game, and the only one that can withstand a huge Yankee attack and have the offense to never be out of the game.

If Cole Hamels was the Cole Hamels of 2008 (or even 2007), I think the Phillies would have the clear edge in starting pitching. A Lee/Hamels combination with this offense would be a huge hurdle to overcome. Unfortunately (probably due to the amount of innings Hamels threw last year) you'll probably have to wait until next year to see that potential.

As it stands, I give starting pitching a tie. I think the Phillies clearly have the better outfield, and I give the Yankees a slight edge in terms of infield (if Utley had displayed much in terms of power, this might be a push).

Obviously, the Yankees have the better bullpen.

My heart says Phillies. If Cole Hamels was on top form, I would pick the Phillies in 6 games. As it stands, I think this is going 7, and at Yankee stadium I think it's going to be hard to overcome.

Yankees in 7. Hope I'm wrong.

Pedro Martinez has been officially listed as the Game 2 starter, scheduled to pitch Thursday night in New York.

I have very mixed emotions about this. On the one hand, I previously wrote about Cole Hamels splits, and putting him in a familiar atmosphere might help. With the way he's been of late, I think I have more confidence in Pedro overcoming obstacles than Hamels.

That being said, New York is going to be a BIG obstacle to overcome, and not the place you want to throw a guy with a 5.66 road ERA on the road (in an admittedly small sample size of 4 games and just over 20 innings). Of course, that didn't seem to hurt him when he shut down the Dodgers last week.

At the very least, it should be great theater.

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are adding Eric Hinske to their World Series roster in place of Freddy Guzman. Significance? I'm feeling a potentially insane symmetry to the endings of the last two world series:



(Hinske would be the one not celebrating in this picture).

Per Todd Zolecki, Brett Myers has been placed on the roster, replacing Cairo.

Games are rumored to start at 7:57 pm (eastern) for each game, except for Game 4 (Sunday in Philadelphia), which is rumored to be an 8:20 pm start time.

Can't wait.

Back in the Rockies series a big deal was made out of Cole Hamels day/night splits. Now, with the lefty finally pitching at home in the playoffs, it's time to take a similar look at his home/road splits:



This is a much more substantive sample size to work from, and is definitely interesting. While his HR rate goes up pitching at home (before jumping to conclusions, look at the Park Factor rating for Citizens Bank Park the last two years), he's much more effective overall pitching at home. Opponents are hitting less, striking out more, and scoring significantly less runs at home.

The day/night splits (unfortunately) held true in the last series, hopefully being in the "friendly" confines of Citizens Bank Park should help Cole out.

The title of this post probably makes it sound as if I'm talking about not taking the Dodgers lightly, and in a sense that's true. It's not inconceivable for a team, particularly a team good enough to win 95 games during the regular season, to win 3 consecutive games. From what I've seen so far this series I would think it is improbable, but certainly stranger things have happened in this wild world of sports.

But no, I'm talking a little bigger picture than that.

The Phillies are on the brink of returning to the Fall Classic to defend their title. They have a first basemen setting all-time marks, both of the Phillies team and MLB history variety. They have two legitimate aces (albeit only one currently pitching up to his potential), the best first baseman in franchise history, the best second baseman in franchise history, the best shortstop in franchise history.

And they are making history, again and again.

Snapping victory from the jaws of defeat, twice in the same playoff run coming down to their last out and pulling out the win. This isn't the stuff that makes great stories. This is the stuff that makes legends.

5 more wins and the Phillies aren't merely a good team. They're not even a great team. 5 more wins and they do something no NL team has done in over 30 years. They become immortal. They become legends.

Take a minute, savor it, let it sink it. Realize what it is you're witnessing. This is actually happening to us. After 25 years of frustration after frustration, Philly fans are finally getting rewarded.

Saw this posted over at the 700 level, apparently MLB.com was a little overzealous in getting their stories out last night. Somebody caught the error before it was fixed.

As the Phillies defied odds and finished off their come from behind win in the 9th, Manny Ramirez was taking a shower.

Seriously, regardless of how talented he is, would he not drive this town nuts? Much is made of the Phillies character and clubhouse chemistry, and at times I think it is overstated, but Manny shows the opposite end of the spectrum. It's not that you can't win with Manny (his time with the Red Sox proves that, with the right supporting cast and the right situation, you can win with him), but he certainly makes losing all that more painful (albeit entertaining).

Source: foxsports.com.

Click below for some photos from tonight's huge series clinching comeback win.

It's just after 2:15 am here, so I'm going to make this brief. Obviously, a huge win. Now up 2-1, with two close-out games, one with Lidge on the Hill and the other one at home.

• Good thing Rollins got that winning run. He was absolutely pathetic at the plate leading up to that. Just a horrible approach overall. So bad it could only be rivaled by...
  
• Pete Happy. Pedro Feliz absolutely drives me mad. How can you hit a weak check swing double play back to the pitcher when you only have one strike on you? That's a 2-strike swing, where you're just trying to make contact. The goal of hitting isn't to make contact with every strike thrown.
  
• Even Werth was getting into the act, falling prey to the high fastball in bad spots.
  
• On the flip side, Ibanez was very good at the plate today (for a game in which he didn't get a hit, at least).
  
• Charlie's decision to go with Madson in the 7th will probably get killed but I agree with it. Go with your best reliever in the most important part of the game. With a man on 1st and 3rd with no outs that spot was the biggest of the game. Being the 9th inning doesn't automatically qualify as being the most important inning. If Madson doesn't control the damage in the 7th the bottom of the 9th wasn't going to be played.
  
• That being said, if Lidge is going to be the closer for the remainder of the playoffs (however long that may be), I'm going to have a heart attack.
  
• Am I the only one who saw that last out and thought "boy am I glad our left fielder isn't Matt Holliday" ?
  
  
  
  That's all folks. See you in just over 15 hours. Let's wrap this up in Colorado.