With a little bit of luck, luck the Sixers were wise enough to capitalize on, the Sixers got tremendous value with selecting UCLA point guard (playing out of position last year at shooting guard) Jrue Holiday with the 17th pick in the draft.
In a draft deep with point guards, but limited in overall talent, the Sixers got one of the top 10 players in the draft class.
Despite being a near-universal top 10 pick on most draft boards, Holiday was the last Green Room invitee to be selected. Even Brandon Jennings, who removed himself from the Green Room because of how unsure he was on his draft position, was selected before Holiday. Once New York passed on him at 8 we got the feeling there was a possibility he could slip, and once he made it past 14 I began to get legitimately excited.
Why did he fall? Hard to say. Chad Ford mentioned something about an injury, but I haven't found anyone to confirm that. Sure, playing out of position (and for a half court team) limited his stats, and he struggled down the stretch. But this has been known for months and didn't prevent him from soaring up most peoples draft boards beforehand.
Regardless of why, Holiday was about as good of a combination of value, potential, sure-thing and need as you can find at 17. Another in the continuing trend the Sixers have established of getting good value at their draft slots.
Read below for a detailed analysis.
Combo guard/tweener
I've heard him called a tweener on more than one occasion from more than one pundit. This could not be further from the truth. There needs to be some distinction between someone versatile enough to defend multiple positions (good) and someone who doesn't fit any one position (a tweener, bad).
You can stick Tim Duncan at PF or Center and he'll be productive. That's an asset, not a tweener.
Jrue Holiday is not a combo guard, which typically implies a shooting guard in a point guard's body (think Louis Williams, or as an example in this draft, Jeff Teague). He's a pure point guard asked to play out of position last year because of team needs. He prefers point guard (as he made abundantly clear while I talked to him on media day on Wednesday), and he has the skills to be an effective point guard. He's an athletic, crafty, pass first point guard with legitimate dribble penetration skills, great uptempo ability, and a high basketball IQ. The fact that he has the size, strength and ability to defend the two does not make him a tweener. It's an asset. He was considered the #2 high school PG prospect in the nation his senior year for a reason. There's no doubt that had he played his natural point guard role at a different school this year, people would not be calling him a tweener.
Strenghts:
A demon in the open court, Holiday is more quick than top end athletic. A good, but not outstanding, sprinter and a leaper, his athletic skills show up in his foot speed and first step, making him both capable of getting into the lane consistently and a good defender, both key traits in a point guard. He's also a capable finisher when getting into the lane, and he's a creative passer who sees the court well, and shows potential in the pick and roll. He's a well above average defender, both pesky in forcing turnovers, and good at denying penetration. His quick feet, quick hands, good technique and effort should allow that to carry over to the NBA.
Perhaps most importantly, he's a high character guy with a strong work ethic, no off the court issues, and has the makeup to be a leader once he establishes himself.
Weaknesses:
Playing out of position perhaps enhanced some of his weaknesses, or at the least made them more noticable. At the forefront is his jump shot, which while it doesn't seem broken (meaning, with enough repitition, it should be improvable), it still has a way to go. Mid-range, off the dribble, from distance. All of it is in need of improvement. Not necessarily surprising for a kid who just turned 19, but it's a concern nonetheless, and will impact his minutes early on. As previously mentioned, while he's quick, he's not the jump-out-of-the-gym athlete that some deem necessary. And, whenever somebody has proven so little at the collegiate level (despite having valid reasons on why his productivity didn't match expectations), there's a little bit of uncertainty that goes along with that. You have to trust your eyes and instincts rather than the stat sheet, similar to doing so for European prospects who are going against grown men. Pau Gasol was drafted on basketball skill rather than stats. While this is possible, it can create uncertainty.
Fit:
On the one hand, Holiday's a great fit. His transition game will instantly fit with the Sixers running style, and his ability to play tight man defense and force turnovers can help ignite the break. In the half court, his pick and roll play can develop into a nice fit with Brand, Speights and Smith, and having shotblockers like Brand and Dalembert behind him can allow him to play tight defense and try to force turnovers. The Sixers have long needed a defender at point guard with the lateral mobility to keep his man from getting into the paint and collapsing a defense.
On the other hand, pairing another perimeter player with long range shooting deficiencies with Iguodala, Young, Williams and Green exacerbates an already existing problem.
Immediate Contribution:
Despite being the youngest collegiate player in the draft, Holiday should be able to contribute immediately, albeit in a limited role. Someone who can defend and run the break, particularly at the point guard spot where the Sixers are getting increasingly thin, can find a spot in the regular rotation if he goes out, works hard, and gives consistent effort. His deficiencies, combined with his age, probably take him out of the running for the starting point guard spot, at least initially, which will probably go to Louis Williams, a re-signed Andre Miller, or a "free agent to be determined later". Should he put it all together, it's not impossible his minutes progress like Thaddeus Young did his rookie year. Defense and effort can get even the youngest of youngsters minutes the more they prove themselves.
Grade:
A. Can't fault anyone here. Of the remaining point guard options (Lawson, Maynor, Teague, Collison), he was a tier ahead. Are there questions about him? Sure. Just as there are of every other option at pick #17. I would have had some (slight) concern taking Holiday in the top 8, simply for the near-necessity of basing a large portion of your evaluation of him on his high school days. But at #17? The upside drastically outweighs the risks. Not only did Holiday have the highest upside of the remaining options, he also has a high level of probability of reaching that upside.
Outside of unrealistic dreams (i.e. trading up to get Rubio), this was about as good of an outcome as Sixers fans could have expected. In 3 years he may very well be another in the growing line of Sixers draft-day successes.